In this world you are useless without capital

I've really come to believe that the only way to make big money is to have big money. No matter your level of competence, if you didn't have money, you can't generate big money. There's several reasons I really believe this. One has to do with my poker playing. I don't care how good you are, but how are you going to play without money? My friend argued that if you only had $1 but was promised to be dealt pocket aces every hand, you'd still go broke despite playing flawless by going all in everytime preflop.

I've also been reading Warren Buffett's biography: Buffett: the making of an american capitalist. I've no doubt he's amazingly skilled when it comes to investing, but he had to convince dozens of people that he was good enough to warrant them risking their capital with him. All of his partners consisting mostly of family and friends invested with him to everyone's gain. That was when he first started out. But lets put Warren Buffett in a different situation. Let's say he is a racial minority in a poor city with his amazing mind and abilities. How will he come up with the capital to invest? Will his family and friends be able to come up with figures over 5 or 6 digits so that he could invest? Unlikely.

Fact of the matter. Skills with no money = no money. Money with no skills = likely no money, but you still have a better chance than the skillfuls with no money. Skills and money = likely money.

A compliment at last

Today as I was playing, Daryll, who won the Venetian deep stack tournament for over $40k told me that if I kept coming every tues/thurs, I'd clean out the game and it wouldn't exist anymore. I thought at first he was mocking me, but then to see his sincere seriousness, I was a bit taken aback. I denied the validity of what he said, but in my heart, I felt like that was the best compliment anyone can pay me. He seemed to believe I was invincible. Except that I ain't and I do lose, sometimes.

Importance of Math: expected value, bluffing frequency, and randomization

Poker is a mathematical game. Before you get me wrong, I'm not a "math player." That is, I'm not exceptional at math nor would I fit the stereotypical "math player" and I understand that poker is a people's game. What I mean when I say that poker is a mathematical game is that the right play is deeply rooted in math and understanding the person's tendencies helps plug you it into a mathematical equation to find the right play. I know I'm going in circles so I'll explain in examples.

For example, the right frequency to bluff in a situation is determined based on the likelihood your opponent will fold in that particular situation. In limit, for example, when all the cards are out, how do you determine whether you should bluff on the river? If you can figure out that the pot is offering a caller 5:1 odds to call, but you know that they will fold the best hand 1 in six times, then bluffing now becomes mathematically correct.

For example in NL, the right amount to bet is the amount that maximizes your expected value. In order to know how to maximize your expected value, you must be able to accurately assess how much a person is likely to call based on their likely range of holdings. If you put someone on a flush draw, what is the maximum that person will call to chase their draw while offered the wrong odds? The difficulty of maximizing expected value is when you do not know what cards your opponent likely hold.

Being able to accurately gauge what a person is likely to be playing (reading a player) helps you plug the right percentages into the mathematical formulas that allow you to play very optimally. How do you get good at reading a player's likely cards? Observation. You must watch them in many different situations so that you may predict accurately what they are doing in a situation with you. For example, if you wanted to predict what your girlfriend/boyfriend or mom/dad would do in a certain situation, you might be right very often because you've observed them in many many different situations and have an understanding of what they are thinking. People's betting patterns, frequency of raising versus folding, number of pots they play, how often they betting or raising, how often they calling or folding all give information on how someone plays even if you never get to see their cards face up out of the muck.

Once you get good at that, you can beat many medium stake games. But in order to win at the next level, you must also be able to deceive opponents who are actively observing you and assessing your play. You do this by choosing a mixed strategy. Quite simply, you randomize your plays so that even if they are reading you, they'd fail because even you do not know what you will do since you have randomized your play. In a lower stake game, its almost unneccessary to randomize since playing straightforward poker will usually win since your opponent's are not thinking about what you have. In higher stake games, your opponents are spending considerable mental resources on figuring out how you think, how you play, what strategies you use in certain situations, or what your betting patterns say about your game. In that case, you randomize and the percentage you chose one action over another is dependent on many variables in which you can apply in a mathematical formula to find the exact right percentage.

Dedicated or consumed with madness?

I feel consumed. I spend hours a day thinking about poker. Nearly the first thing I think of when I wake is some hand I played, how I could've gotten more value for a certain hand, or how i misplayed some hand or endless other strategic considerations. The last thing I think about before bedtime is the same story. It's becoming more than just work or a passion, but almost an obsessive addiction.

Is this madness? Have I gone mad or I'm focused and dedicated - have I crossed the line?

Today was the first time I went to Lucky Chances. I saw this 22 year old (he looked young, and i later asked him his age) with nearly 15k in chips in front of him. I envied him so much. He just looked so cool playing with the big boys at such a young age. I one day want to play the 10-10-20, 40 to open game at Lucky Chances. Problem is the game plays so big it'd require a huge bankroll. I recognized some fish I play at the Tu/Th big yellow game at Casino San Pablo. I can visualize my next goal. I'd have to work hard on my game so that I can bankroll myself into the 10-10-20 blinds game at LC. My patience tests me. I was itching just to take a shot at the game. Do I need saving?

Tipping Dealers : generous is selfish, selfish is idiocy

I'm a consistent tipper, but I almost never overtip (just so you know my bias). Many people wonder what the right balance of tipping is. I'm not entirely sure what the answer is but I do have a strong idea of what the pertinent factors are.

The first question is: should i tip?

First thing to consider is that dealers make minimum wage and derive the majority of their income from tipping. If casinos were to continued paying dealers minimum wage, there would be no more quality dealers left in the world as their skills could probably be better utilized elsewhere. Amongst the things a dealer must do well is keep track of the pot size, keep track of the players, make sure everyone puts the right and correct amount into the pot, prevent cheating and collusion, pull the stacks into the pot, recognize the best hand, enforce the rules, and be extremely efficient and courteous. These are highly important to a well run game. So the answer is if you don't tip quality dealers, you lose quality dealers and the game becomes poorly run.

Consequently, you should make every effort not to tip a poor dealer. An experienced dealer that doesn't do their job deserves to find another job that they appreciate more and do better in. Dealers that fail to do their job cost ALL of the players at the table money as well as the casino. The sooner they find another occupation, the more likely all the players at the casino will benefit, as well as the winning poker player.

Second Question: How much should you tip?

Here are my general guidelines:

In general, you should tip more for better service. In general, you should tip a bit more for bigger pots since those pots require more work and time. So the question is, how much do you need to tip to keep good dealers in business? If you were a good dealer, would $10 a hour suffice? Would $20? would $30 an hr suffice? My opinion is that a good dealer should make at least close to what a good assistant would make. That is about $30-40K a year (Vegas dealers make about 55k/yr. I don't know what CA dealers make) They should make less than say a consultant a big firm which is about 60k. So at 40k a year working 48 weeks per year and working 40 hours per week, a dealer would be generating $20/hr. I think that's fair and thats an amount that keeps a lot of quality dealers on the workfoce. Since they are paid $7.50/hr by casino, they would have to generate $12.5/ hr in tips to make $40k a year. Typically a dealer can deal on average 25 hands/hour. Most patrons tip at least a dollar each pot, but often more while few tip nothing.

Now that we know how valuable a dealer is to the game, the other side of the equation is how much can you tip to still stay in business? If you tip too much, you cut significantly into your profits and become a losing player. Losing players cannot stay in business and therefore drop out of the poker economy and can no longer pay money to the casino which pays these dealers and also can no longer contribute tips to dealers. In other words, being too generous is disastrous for dealers as well as for your personal bankroll. Another point is some players are so good they can afford to overtip, but in that case they aren't properly compensated for their huge investment in time, money, and effort which means being a pro poker player becomes a less desirable for the highly skilled which then results in that person finding a new occupation that compensates properly for that person's highly desirous intellect. (this is just an economical point of view - some ppl love poker and would do it even regardless of money)

Given these variables, there is some equilibrium point in which you tip quality dealers that in term help you maximize your earn which means you can afford to tip them more. A player must be able to beat the game, beat the variance, beat the rake/drop, and still show considerable profits for their time. The poker player's time must be compensated for all the time they used to gain neccessary experience, build a bankroll, or read dozens of educational books.

Before you think of being too "generous" :

The consequence of tipping above the equilibrium point is that you make less and dealers make less because you now drop out of the poker economy and are unable to contribute to the poker economy.

So before you think of being selfish and tipping nothing:

The consequence of tipping below the equilibrium point is that dealers make less, drop out of dealing and are replaced by bad dealers which in turn costs you money.

Ruthless and risky : Lessons from a failed bluff

The thing about poker is that you have to do many things simultaneously well. You have to be able to make a good hand yet fold it to a better one. You have to be able to take a bad hand to call a bluff. You have to be able to take a great hand and throw the knockout punch. Each of these situations comes with a certain sense of urgency because in poker, the opportunities to throw a knockout punch is very rare and if you don't knock them out when u get a chance, then you might have to wait hours for ur next chance. Finally, despite there being very few chances to knock someone out (stack them completely), you are always and constantly under the threat of being knocked out.

Poker is like boxing. Good boxers throw jabs and block the opposing player's aggression. They jab until they can manever themselves into a situation where they can throw that knockout punch. And they know, if they miss that knockout punch a) they have to manever forever to have it again, or b) they manage to needlessly expose themselves and get knocked out.

Nonetheless, yesterday was one time in which I felt I played very well. Not perfect. But damn good. I managed to stack someone everytime I thought I had the hand to do so. I got value for my marginal single pair hands. I saved bets when I had a strong but second best hand.

One of the hands I'm most proud of is actually one of my failed bluffs. They say good players must always take calculated risk and here was one (most would find extremely risky):

I raised in late position w/ K8o when I saw one of my favorite fish limp in. Everyone folded to him and he called. flop came Qd 9d 6s. Now I made a c-bet representing a Q. I looked at him the whole time. He stared at the board the whole time. Even as he was calling, he kept staring at the board like he was dying to know what the next card was. At this point, I knew he had a flush draw. The thing is, I had nothing. Turn came a blank, 4c. Now he checks it to me and I'm thinking, i can a)check it down and then bet when the flush misses to take the pot or i can take the riskier but far more profitable approach.

I did b) I bet an amount that I thought he would call planning to take it away from him on river when he misses flush or give up if he hits it. Since I knew on the turn he had less than a quarter chance to hit his flush, I knew that that $200 i bet, i would win back with 80% probablity and if he hit, i wouldn't pay him off.

So I bet $200 into a $200 pot. River came a Ah. Now I made a huge bet - $500. I felt that there's no way he could call. I could have two pair, a set, or AK. I built the pot, gambling that he wouldn't hit his flush (and he wouldn't over 80% of time) and end up letting me take it down. He thought for less than 5 seconds, then called. Opps, now im fuked. He showed AdJd - missed his flush - but caught a SINGLE ace w/ a weak kicker and called a nearly pot size river bet against someone that was betting out the whole time. Despite that, I knew against any reasonable player, my bluff would have succeeded and I'm proud of myself for having the courage and conviction to take advantage of my read for potential greater profits.

Its in such a way I feel very much like I've improved a lot. After I realized he played a single ace that strong, i ended up getting every dime back from him on the last hand of the game where I flopped a set of Ts on a flop of 9 T A rainbow. I knew he had an A so i proceeded to bet double the pot on the flop and he pushed all in to have me insta-call him and get stacked for over a grand. I remembered his weakness of overvaluing a single pair, and I exploited that to the maximum. Ruthless? Perhaps. But that's good poker and I'm damn proud of it.